Vint Cert On Bandwidth and the Future of Internet Television.

Echoing what almost everyone is thinking these days, [Vint Cerf][3], one of the founders of the internet, and now Google's vice president, thinks that television is dead and internet video delivery will soon be the norm. 

However, unlike many, Cerf doesn't think the bandwidth issues, frequently stated as a potential stumbling block for video over the web, will be a problem. Cerf thinks that a combination of faster connections, improved network technology and not "streaming" content will alleviate any issues.

With every new IPTV type of service at least one broadband provider protests it saying their networks can't handle the strain (the latest are Tiscali, BT and Carphone Warehouse, all British ISPs that don't like the BBC's plan to stream content).

But as Cerf points out streaming is only one small, and perhaps not even important, part of delivering video over the internet. In fact, and I would tend to agree, what most people want is a download now, watch later system, not streaming content. 

We want to download and store content just as we did with a TiVo, or, in the old days, a VCR. 

The chief problem with this scheme is that the current content distributers (networks) don't want you to download and store their content. But as Fake Steve Jobs recently [noted][1] in wake of the recent NBC Apple fallout, the days of networks are numbered: 

>It's over now. Your business model was a historical anomaly built on scarcity of a valuable resource and the willingness of a small group of network operators to not slit each other's throats and to collaborate in exploiting the content producers.

Fake Steve or not, the argument is valid. So perhaps it's a question of who is more likely to come around to the idea of widespread video downloads -- the ISPs or the Networks? My bet is the former.

Below is a video of Cerf speaking at a recent conference and [here's a link][2] to an interview with the Guardian where he talks specifically about the bandwidth issue.


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[1]: http://fakesteve.blogspot.com/2007/09/boring-rant.html
[2]: http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/video/2007/sep/03/vint.cerf?gusrc=rss&feed=technology
[3]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vinton_Cerf