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Michael just [posted a roundup][7] of our [Vista Predictions][8] survey we ran a couple days back and I couldn't help but notice that one of my predictions failed to make the top ten. In fact it failed to get much support at all. At last count there are only thirteen people that agree with my hypothesis that Apple will buyout [Parallels][6] virtualization software and start bundling Vista with Mac.
Now I know it sounds perverse, but hear me out.
First of all Apple has a history of buying/absorbing/ripping off technologies it likes. The cover art in iTunes 7 was a plugin Apple purchased from the developer. iTunes itself comes from the code base that was originally [SoundJam MP][1]. And then there's the whole Dashboard - Konfabulator debate that's already been beat to death.
And Apple likes Parallels. Granted Apple has said it [isn't interested ][2] in virtualization software, but Steve Jobs denied the existence of [Marklar][3] for years and that turned out to be true. The fact is Apple is way too secretive to be taken at its word. Besides which is you read that article closely you'll notice Apple's Phil Schiller says Apple has no interest in virtualization *for Leopard*. Okay, but how about 10.6?
So why do I think Apple will buy Parallels? For one thing Parallels keeps cranking out free updates which mean either they're really cool, or they have some funding from somewhere. Development is expensive and companies rarely give it away.
Another reason I stand by this prediction is Windows Vista. Vista is a really nice looking piece of software, the sort of thing that Mac users [seem to like][4]. While sales may be slow off of the blocks, Vista will eventually come to hold 95 percent of the market just like its predecessors have done.
The reason Windows' dominance in the OS market doesn't threaten Apple is because Apple is in the hardware business. OS X is a great system and obviously Apple has put a lot of money into it, but they don't recoup it by selling the OS, they make money by selling the machine that runs the OS.
Given that 95 percent of the market clearly wants to run Windows, Apple stands to make giant strides in hardware sales if they can bundle both OSes with their hardware. Combine this with a generation of kids growing up with iPods and a love of Halo and you can see where the market potential is huge.
Now Apple claims they aren't interested in virtualization because of the performance hit (and apparently Wired readers believe with them).
Fair enough, how about I change my prediction slightly? Forget Parallels, what about Wine? [Wine is open source][5], which means Apple could take the code and improve/customize it -- just like they took FreeBSD for OS X and Konqueror for Safari -- so long as they donate that code back to the project.
Wine has the distinct advantage of doing something Apple users clearly want (running Windows apps), but doesn't violate Apple's obsessive control over the "user experience." That is, Wine runs Windows software, not Windows.
Here's my new scenario:
* Apple retains control the user experience in the primary OS -- OS X.
* Bootcamp allows for a separate install of Windows (sold as an add-on with new Macs).
* Apple takes Wine and creates something called *Bootstrap* which allows you to open and use your Windows Apps and documents within your OS X partition.
How you like dem apples?
[1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITunes "Wikipedia: iTunes History"
[2]: http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=2277 "Apple reiterates: no interest in virtualization for Leopard"
[3]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marklar "Marklar"
[4]: http://blog.wired.com/cultofmac/2007/01/running_vista_o.html "Running Vista on a Mac"
[6]: http://www.parallels.com/en/products/workstation/mac/ "Parallels Desktop for Mac"
[5]: http://www.winehq.com/ "Wine HQ"
[7]: http://blog.wired.com/monkeybites/2007/01/vista_predictio_1.html "Vista Predictions: Recap"
[8]: http://blog.wired.com/monkeybites/2007/01/vista_predictio.html "Predictions for Windows Vista"
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